Saturday, September 15, 2007

Long Term Euro Cycle

Is the Euro run over? Attached below is a weekly chart showing a Gann grid adjusted to squaring a range of time going back to Oct 2002. The closing of this past week put price right on the 360° of time and 495° of price. I would be expecting a pretty significant correction from this point pretty close to the 1.30 area in the short term. I've got 1.8280 marked off as the first target. The cycles of time have been fairly accurate and I've circled in yellow where price turned. At least within a few bars. 6/8 ain't too bad and if price turns within the next few weeks it will be 7/8 correct.

The red moving average looking thing is a price cycle forecast showing this past week as a major turning point. This price cycle shows one inversion,but the turning points were correct even though direction wasn't. The next turn isn't unitl the end of January. There is a bump around the end of November beginning of December. Again, inversions happen and I'm not sure how forecast them, but the primary key is the forecast change of direction and not necessarilly literal direction.




Below is the continuation of the last Gann Grid. Price peaked again at 56 bars and might prove to be the top for a while.


Monday, September 10, 2007

Manual Gann Grid Continued


Continuing the grid from last Friday, price continued to react to the 56° of time. The high for Monday morning peaked right on the 56th bar from the previous verticle division. The high for Wednesday also peaked at 56° of time. Once a pattern has been established it's not uncommon for the same theme to play out over a good section of time.

On the first chart, the magenta vertical line shows the forecast high for time. The 2nd shows how it played out. The 3rd chart shows the high for Wed.




Sunday, September 9, 2007

Idealized 9 Month Cycle














There is a great article on cycles at www.decisionpoint.com. The article breaks down a nominal 8 year cycle down to an idealized 9 month cycle. Within the 9 month cycle are two phases of a 20 week cycle and 4 phases of a 10 week cycle. Techincally, a complete cycle is in 2 phases. A positive phase and a negative phase or your typical sine wave.


I went back to a major swing low in Feb. 07, 1993 on the GBPUSD weekly chart to start the cycles. This past week culminated in the arrival of all 3 cycles. Attached below is a weekly chart showing such. The blue verticals are 10 weeks, magenta 20 weeks, and brown 9 months. This 9 month cycle could also be considered a Natural Cycle for obvious reasons. Either way, the article is an excellent guide to cycle trading. http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAcourse/Cycles1.html